Summary Given Trump’s election victory and Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs, I’ve revised my model with a new expected value range of $112,500 to $200,000 per coin, up from $40,000 to $100,000. My bull case assumes a 25% chance of Bitcoin matching gold’s market cap, reaching $750,000 per coin, based on the possibility of U.S. adoption as a reserve asset. I retain a $50,000 bear case, using the average Bitcoin Realized Price as a baseline, envisioning a scenario where Bitcoin serves mainly as a trading asset rather than a reserve. I believe a Trump administration may positively influence Bitcoin through favorable regulations and tax policies, potentially spurring other nations to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset. With Bitcoin currently trading below my new expected range, I rate it as a Strong Buy, seeing it as a high-risk, high-reward asymmetric bet with long-term potential. Back in May, I wrote about how I see Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) as an asymmetric bet on its adoption as a global reserve asset, with an expected value between $40,000 to $100,000 per Bitcoin. Since then, I believe Trump’s recent election victory and Bitcoin’s rise to new all-time highs have significantly altered the investment case for Bitcoin. This is why, in this article, I’ll update my model for evaluating Bitcoin under the Trump administration, resulting in a new expected value range for the Bitcoin asymmetric bet: $112,500 to $200,000 per coin. Recap: My model for assessing Bitcoin’s expected value as an asymmetric bet I encourage readers to review my previous articles on Bitcoin as well as my most recent piece, where I discuss why I believe Bitcoin is maturing as a global reserve asset and not a new global currency. For those not inclined to do so, this section provides a quick summary of my key points and previous model for assessing Bitcoin’s expected value as an asymmetric bet. I see Bitcoin as having all the technical characteristics needed to become a superior global reserve asset: durability, divisibility, fungibility, portability, verifiability, and scarcity. With that in mind, I believe Bitcoin at current levels represents an asymmetric bet on the possibility it actually gets adopted on a global scale as a reserve asset, partially replacing and complementing gold as well as other assets such as fiat currencies held by major nations as reserves. To understand the expected value of this asymmetric bet, my model assumes two cases (a bull and bear case) and three scenarios (which reflect different % probabilities that the bull and bear case play out). In my previous model, I based my evaluation on the following assumptions: A bull case where Bitcoin matches gold’s market capitalization, reaching a price of $650,000 per coin. Three probability scenarios: a 5%, 20%, and 25% chance of my bull case materializing. In the next section, I will outline how and why I am revising my bull case and probability scenarios. My new bull case: A 25% chance of Bitcoin matching gold in market cap In light of Donald Trump winning the US election, I am updating the three probability scenarios of my bull case for Bitcoin materializing. My base scenario is now a 25% chance that Bitcoin matures into a global reserve asset, matching gold in market capitalization. The reason why I am choosing this specific number has to do with Donald Trump suggesting that the US under his administration might buy and/or mine Bitcoin to create a national reserve. Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform that recently correctly predicted Trump winning the US election, currently puts at 25% the chance that Trump will create a national Bitcoin reserve. My assumption here is that if the US does start the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, this will trigger other nation states and major institutional investors to do the same, having Bitcoin rapidly maturing into an asset class of roughly the same size as gold. My other two scenarios assign a probability of 35% and 50% respectively of this happening. These numbers are purely for reference, and as I outlined in my first article, readers can play with the assumptions according to their own beliefs to understand what this asymmetric bet could pay out for them. Expected Values of Bear & Bullish cases for BTC (Author's own work) Worth noting is that since my last article, gold ran to new all-time highs. I have reflected this change in my bullish target price - which went from $650,000 to $750,000 per Bitcoin. The overall result of my updated model is that the expected outcome of the Bitcoin asymmetric bet is between $112,500 and $200,000 per coin. Given Bitcoin’s price expressed in USD is at around $87,000 at the time of writing, I assign a STRONG BUY to Bitcoin. Quick note on why I am not updating my Bitcoin Bear case In my bear case, I see Bitcoin stabilizing around the average of the Short Term ( increased since my first article, I am keeping my bear case unchanged at $50,000. I’m using the average Bitcoin Realized Price as a bear case benchmark because, in my view, it reflects the average price people pay for their Bitcoin. In a bear scenario, I envision Bitcoin remaining more of an “online casino,” where users trade it primarily for short- to mid-term gains. In such a case, I expect Bitcoin holders, akin to gamblers, would generally avoid selling at a loss, anchoring the price around this level. Beyond the theory: How I see a Trump admin playing out for Bitcoin I see the model I just went through purely as a theoretical exercise that can help investors decide whether it makes sense to enter Bitcoin at current price levels. Beyond this model, I believe a Trump administration would be overall very favorable for Bitcoin in terms of regulations and a more lax approach to taxation. Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman, is rumored to be leaving before year-end. Historically critical of cryptocurrencies, Gensler is widely viewed within the crypto community as a barrier to broader institutional adoption. I believe the U.S. has an unparalleled ability to drive technological innovation, political influence, and economic policy globally—perhaps only rivaled by China in certain areas. If the U.S. adopts an open stance toward cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, I think it could prompt other governments to begin seriously considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset. In this regard, I see game theory playing a major role for Bitcoin. Once a few major institutions or national governments begin to see value in Bitcoin, others may feel compelled to follow to avoid the risk of being left out. Currently, a few governments, like El Salvador, hold Bitcoin as a reserve, but they are relatively small players. For game theory to truly take effect and drive Bitcoin’s maturation, I think it would require adoption from at least a couple of the top 20 economies by GDP. Whether and when the U.S. will be among these adopters remains to be seen. As usual, I avoid providing an exact time frame for any of my asymmetric bets to play out. I encourage readers interested in this opportunity to conduct further research, challenge their own assumptions, and, if convinced, hold with a multi-year, long-term perspective. Risks to my thesis The main limitation of my model lies in its assumptions, which are ultimately subjective. I’ve assigned a 24% probability that Bitcoin becomes a U.S. reserve asset, potentially setting the stage for it to mature as a global reserve asset. This estimate is based on forecasts from Polymarket, a crypto-betting platform that accurately predicted Trump’s victory. However, readers may reasonably disagree with this probability, and some might see the chance of Bitcoin evolving into a global reserve asset as far less likely. For this reason, I encourage readers to "play" with the model, adjusting the assumptions according to their own taste to assess whether Bitcoin is worth the risk at its current price. While I see promising growth and adoption potential for Bitcoin, it remains a historically volatile asset and an asymmetric bet—by nature, a high-risk play. Conclusion I believe a Trump administration that is openly considering Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset and supporting the technology will be a boost for Bitcoin’s global adoption, regardless of whether all promises are fully implemented once Trump takes office in January. This significant shift in U.S. policy is why I’m updating my Bitcoin valuation model. I now see Bitcoin as an asymmetric bet with an expected value range of $112,500 to $200,000 per coin. With Bitcoin trading at around $87,000 at the time of writing—still below the lower bound of my expected range—I recommend a strong buy , given the asymmetric nature of this bet.
