Bitcoin may have already frontloaded its gains during its last recovery – analyst

Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) is not making consistent new highs in the likes of gold ( GLD ), ( XAUUSD:CUR ), and its lack of momentum is notable, said Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity. “Perhaps it already frontloaded those gains when it recovered from its dip to $15,000 in late 2022,” he wrote in an X post. He said that both gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) and bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) are “different players on the same team” but maybe they are not playing together. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ), he said, aspires to have the utility of money – “I think of it as exponential gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ), ( GLD ), or gold with an exponential network feature – but for bitcoin to compete with gold its adoption curve needs to continue to grow. He said that according to Metcalfe’s Law, if the adoption curve continues to grow, its valuation and price should grow as well. However, bitcoin’s price has “followed a boom-bust cycle in which it tends to dramatically overshoot and undershoot the underlying curve,” which makes sense only for an asset that is still young and ongoing price discovery. Credits to Fidelity. Moreover, this year, bitcoin’s ( BTC-USD ) curve has flattened. It has stayed at around 60,000 to 70,000 since late February, and with the number of addresses with a value of at least $1 stagnating at the 46M mark, said Timmer. Only due to its steep gain, at the beginning of the year (due to the onset of ETFs) the index is up 55.65% year-to-date. If bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) has indeed become a mature asset that is less prone to boom-bust swings, it will be up to the shape of its adoption curve to drive the price further,” Timmer concluded. “Perhaps that acceleration is coming soon if the world is heading to a state of fiscal dominance, but for now it’s gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ), ( GLD ) that’s stealing the show.” More on Bitcoin USD: VanEck Mid-October Bitcoin ChainCheck Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Climbs Above $60K Bitcoin Eyes A Breakout, Have The Stars Finally Aligned? Phony bitcoin ETF post leads to arrest of alleged SEC X account hacker Italy said to lift taxes on capital gains from bitcoin to 42% from 26%